Signs point toward a recession, not a rail traffic rebound
Some economists believe it’s the strongest signal yet that the economy could be sliding into a recession.
In terms of retail sales, the Christmas season didn’t do much to keep cash registers humming. Last month’s sales dropped 0.4 percent compared with December 2006’s total, capping off retailers’ weakest year since 2002, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.
Meanwhile, the producer price index, which measures farm, factory and refinery prices, dipped 0.1 percent in December, according to the U.S. Labor Department. And the unemployed figure last month reached 7.7 million vs. 6.8 million in December 2006, while the unemployment rate went up from 4.4 percent to 5 percent year over year.
A CNNMoney.com article, entitled “Recession near — or already here,” cited a recent poll showing three of four Americans believe the economy already is in a recession or will be sometime this year.
We’re only about three weeks into 2008 and the economic world could turn in a favorable direction before mid-year. But in the early going, expect to hear the “r” word bandied about.
If only that stood for “rebound” …
Posted by: 
Jeff Stagl | Date posted: 1/21/2008
Comments
Posted by James Swidergal on 1/25/2008 2:53:15 PM
A rail traffic rebound from what? The carriers' didn't do so bad last year,even if they were crying poor mouth comparing 07 to 06. As far as Recession goes, personally I think it a spin wizards doing on the part of the media. Hype the economy,or lack of economy while Dems and Repls primarily ascertain who's got the biggest coin purse. What a time to run for office. Too much money and you lose the working stiffs vote not enough money and ya cant get out the tv and radio spots. Anyway, signs don't actually point towards a recession just a volatile market. And, maybe it's to soon in the new year for good times to surface.
Posted by Sankar Narayanan on 2/4/2008 3:12:38 AM
Switching from Rail to road While the western world is harping on Green house effect caused by the developing and underdeveloped countries using fossil fuel, the west , particularly the USA having got used to lavish luxury with very large living area with much lower population density, want everything fast, including delivery of pizza at the door within quarter of an hour. Heavens are not going to fall if the freight takes a few more hours or days to be delivered when moved by rail. Americans have not realized that the rolling resistance of a rail vehicle is about two pounds per ton while a road vehicle requires about eight times the force. The power to move a train on rails will be about 2 hp per ton of trailing load while a road vehicle needs about 12 to 16 hp. for the same speed. The economy apart in the fuel cost, the amount of combustion products released by motor vehicles on roads for transporting people and freight is so high. This hypocrisy must be realized by every American and should resolve to use public transport for moving about. This will give some exercise also to walk to the nearest station, instead of entering the garage for driving out straight from the dining room. The rest of the world is watching USA going down in economy by SUB-PRIME lending, which in plain terms means give large loans to unworthy borrowers encouraging them to spend more. The nemesis of this most unethical way of living is visiting cruelly on the country and the economy suffers beyond immediate repair.
Posted by LHKMAN on 2/4/2008 5:11:43 PM
Sankar Narayanan makes some excellent points. But he fails to take in both the costs and benefits of a pluralistic society such as that of the United States. No commercial enterprise will do the things he advocates on its own, even though the people running the enterprise undoubtedly know that what they are doing is collectively wrong for the society and what he urges is good for the society. That, folks, is the price we pay for not having a national transportation policy, which, by the way, was the reason DOT was created more than 40 years ago - to develop a national transportation policy. Until this country has one, commercial entities will continue to optimize their individual performance while knowing that it contributes to suboptimization of the entire system.
